* 1) I've been playing around with Jesse's triathlon calculator. Fun times! The calculator was accurate in predicting my performance in the Sprint I did in June, except the run, where is was wrong by over 1 minute (a lot for a 5K run).
So, just for fun, will I beat Jesse's estimation?
Here is what he says I will do (transitions included):
Swim: 39:34 - I would be very happy with this!
Bike: 3:23:37, 16.5 MPH (the course has you climb 59 feet/mile) - this is way better than I think I can do on this course, my best pace for 56 miles thus far has been 17.7 MPH on a gentler course.
RUN: 1:50:27, 8:26 pace (I entered this course as very hilly, given the 104 feet/mile climb) - I hope to do better than this...
Total: 5:56: 39 - I would be walking on clouds to get a sub 6 on this course.
* 2) I love to play hypothetical games with Chris, and have him give me predictions (of race times, papers accepted for publication, conferences, rain estimates, etc, etc). He really struggles with these, which makes the game more interesting to me (you know this, Chris!).
So the other day I asked him to tell me when am I going to cry during the HIM. He said "toward the end of the bike". Hrr. At least he did not say during the swim. Can I prove him wrong and not cry until the end of the run? (LOL).
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Taper is going well. Legs feel good. I did a 12 miler today, Garminless, easy to moderate, with pick ups. Felt great. My last long ride (72 miles) + 3 mile run was on Thursday and it went very well. I have been getting a big concerned that my post bike runs have been fairly short, mostly 2-4 miles (with only one 6 miler after a 30 mile ride) and at about 30 secs to 50 secs/mile faster than what I plan to do in the HIM. However, an article in the August's issue of the Triathlete's magazine talked about how this is a better strategy as opposed to the longer and slower post bike runs (assuming one does longer runs outside the bricks, which I did galore!).
I had a sucky swim on Wednesday, but 2 great swims on Friday (both short) so my swimming is still a hit or miss. Hopefully a hit in the HIM. I am still working out nutrition - I think I'll aim for 200-250 cal/hours on the bike (that is something like 600-750 or more given how slow I am) mostly from gels and bananas and cliff bars (solids between 30 min-2:30 only). I'll carry one bottle of Nuun and one of water, and will exchange the water bottle at the water stops. I'll be taking about 2 Endurolytes per hour, or more if it is going to be hot. I am yet to write my race plan, but hopefully this weekend! My race gear is picked - call me nuts, but I will change from bike shorts to running shorts! The top will stay the same.
This week I'll be doing next to nothing in terms of swim/bike/run, and that will be challenging. I plan on practicing transitions a lot, both in my head and in actuality. Plus I have a ton of work to do given that we are leaving for Romania the day after the race!
Good luck to all the Timberman racers. I'll be checking on you all tomorrow!
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12 comments:
oooh...love seeing your predictions.
and...I predict you are not going to cry on the bike. nope.
if you cry at all, it'll be at the mid and end of run. That's my prediction.
Oh, and I def predict a sub 6 for you for SURE! w/your mental toughness? that needs to have a calculation in there!
FWIW, I eat 800 calories on the bike during a 1/2IM.
I have no doubt that you'll get under 6 hours. I think you will really surprise yourself! :) And I don't think you will cry at all, though maybe at the finish line... and those will be happy tears!
I am getting SO excited for you.
I will be crying for you from the beginning. And especially at the end.
You are a hero regardless of your time. Massive achievement for all of us to see you do this. Kudos!
Oooohhhh, I like thing that predict stuff, I'll have to check that out.
Best of luck. Also, if you cry in the water, will anyone know? I know, its that whole tree in the woods question all over again.
Good luck to you! You are going to do awesome..for sure:)
If you're do cry on the bike it's a BIG sign you're bonking. But I doubt you will cry at all, except after you finish. I always cry at the end of IMs, and sometimes at the end of HIMs.
I have to say sub-six is completely in the bag! And no crying until you finish.
i have no doubts in a sub-6 for you... seriously! lol about chris' prediction. the pressure is on to hold back until sometime during/after the run!
You inspire me. I've always loved riding. Swimming, not so much and running has been with me for awhile. I really enjoy hearing about your training and how you share this with your family. Can't wait to hear more.
I downloaded the TriCalc App on my itouch before my last Oly Tri and used that to figure out if I could go sub 3 hours on the race. IT worked!! ha! I love that thing. I wonder if it can predict the future like the magic 8 ball?
I bet you get under 6 hours.
so so so excited for you :) can't wait to see what you do this weekend. i think you will be sub-6 no doubt (as long as no mechanical, etc... we know how that goes :-/). you are going to do great, rest up and try not to go crazy this week! ;)
Ooops I thought i had commented ( given you my 2 cents, hahaha) but i didnt yet. I found that calculator to be inaccurate for me. Dont calculate, just go race!
As for fuel on the bike i am more like Michelle, you will be amazed how much you can take in with the gels and or fluids. I cant do Solids, but if you can go for it, just get enough.
You will be so happy, you will not cry:) Actually i did cry when i finished Kansas bc I was SO DANG hot and fried. But its more tears of joy, seriously.
Just think you are going to have a blast as soon as the gun goes off!
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